Erling Haaland and Darwin Núñez both scored stoppage time goals at the weekend. But the context could hardly have been more different.
For Núñez, it was another huge moment that flies in the face of any doubts over the impact he has had at Liverpool. Should Jürgen Klopp’s men go on to claim the biggest prize, few can claim to have had a bigger influence than the Uruguayan, given the sheer number of result-altering contributions.
Haaland’s goal will have been gratefully received by Pep Guardiola, making the result safe for Manchester City by creating a two-goal buffer at the start of eight additional minutes. But the derby against Manchester United belonged to Phil Foden, who stepped up with a brace to win the game for his side.
In fact, had it not been for the contributions of Foden, far more scrutiny would have fallen on Haaland. He was responsible for a terrible miss at the end of the first half, with Manchester United leading 1-0 at that stage. Gary Lineker dubbed it the worst he has ever seen at this level.
Cue the ‘so he is human after all’ responses. But this was far from a one-off, and it drew attention to a remarkable reality.
Even after slotting his goal later on, Haaland is now underperforming his non-penalty expected goals (xG) in the Premier League this season by a greater margin than Núñez, per FBref. Previously considered a robotic finisher, the Manchester City striker has been distinctly average in front of goal during this campaign, converting 2.6 fewer goals than expected given the quality of chances.
Of course, this doesn’t mean he is not contributing. Liverpool fans have spent the whole season defending Núñez — currently underperforming non-penalty xG by 2.2. Ultimately, he is missing chances that may not come about at all were he not in the team, and even sub-par finishing still yields more goals than most strikers can manage. The same holds true for Haaland to a certain extent.
But while Haaland and Núñez are somewhat in the same mold, there can be little doubt that the Manchester City marksman is more single-minded. He often posts only a small number of touches per game, and it might be said that Guardiola is effectively ‘accommodating’ him in the side because his unerring goal-scoring prowess justifies it.
In fact, Guardiola has almost admitted that previously. Speaking about the impact of Haaland and De Bruyne a few weeks ago, he summed up their purpose in the Manchester City side (YouTube):
“For the way we play, they don’t change much. But these guys help us to win games.”
Guardiola expressed similar sentiments specifically about De Bruyne after he came off the bench to turn the Newcastle match (Guardian). “We need players like Kevin. We need him to do something special in the final third. That is not tactical ability but talent, individual talent.”
So if Haaland is not winning games for Manchester City, and not moving the dial with his individual finishing talent as he has done in the past, Guardiola’s own criteria accidentally dictate that the forward has been something of a passenger in recent weeks. The contrast to Núñez is stark.
Naturally, the reason for keeping Haaland in the side is that he is capable of turning it on at any point — just ask Luton, dumped out of the FA Cup in midweek by a five-goal haul. While Liverpool hopes that Núñez’s finishing will ultimately revert to the mean, the expectation with Haaland is that he ultimately returns to well above the average, a standard he had maintained more or less throughout his career prior to this campaign.
Klopp will certainly not be taking anything for granted when the two strikers meet at the weekend. There’s still every chance Haaland could make the telling difference in the huge title showdown.
But with the Manchester City man a statistically worse finisher than Núñez this season, there’s little doubt who Klopp would rather have leading his line. Unlike Guardiola, the Liverpool manager would never say that his striker ‘doesn’t change much’ in his side’s general play, because it simply isn’t true — the big-money arrival from Benfica brings chaos wherever he goes, and it keeps making a difference in the title race.
