While the focal point of the Steelers’ hiring of Arthur Smith is what the run game will look like- specifically heavier personnel, an offensive line that will have at least one new starter, and a healthy dose of both Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren.
However, the passing game will look a lot different, as well, as I covered more in depth earlier this week.
Specifically, the deep passing game is going to be a more integral focus for the Steelers, and George Pickens will benefit greatly from it.
Ryan Tannehill’s production with Arthur Smith
If we look at the 2019 Titans, Arthur Smith’s first season as Tennessee’s offensive coordinator (and the season in which the Titans went to the AFC Championship Game), their downfield passing game was amongst the best in football. Their ability to set up second-and-short situations with their run game was the perfect compliment to Ryan Tannehill and the play action pass game. Tannehill was third in the NFL in completion percentage on passes that came off play action on second down (min. 25 attempts), per Sports Info Solutions. He was also second in on-target percentage and yards per attempt in that situation. Overall on play action that season, Tannehill was second amongst all quarterbacks in completion percentage and touchdown percentage (min. 25 attempts). He was also fourth in average throw depth, meaning the Titans were launching the ball downfield frequently off play action- enter A.J. Brown.
Brown had 15 receptions of 20 or more yards, and 11 receptions of 30 or more yards (3rd in the NFL), and he led the league in receptions of 40 or more yards with eight. This was the formula for the Titans’ success- ground and pound early to set up short-yardage situations and force defenses into heavier box sets. Smith tried to do the same thing in Atlanta, but didn’t have the quarterback to do it successfully.
The Falcons’ QB woes hurt Smith’s offense
Last year, Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke combined for 154 pass attempts off play action. Combined, that would put them at fourth in the NFL behind Jared Goff, Dak Prescott, and Tua Tagovailoa. They completed about 62 percent of their passes off play action, which collectively place them around 33rd in the NFL. So it’s not as if Smith wasn’t trying to do what was proven to work with the Titans, he just didn’t have the guys under center to make it work. Out of 45 quarterbacks with at least 25 passes off play action, Ridder and Heinicke were 40th and 42nd, respectively, in catchable pass percentage as well as 26th and 38th in passer rating off play action. For comparison, Russell Wilson was 12th in passer rating off play action. This also leans into what many Steelers fans have been saying to those on the outside- Pittsburgh’s new offense doesn’t need Wilson, or Justin Fields for that matter, to all of a sudden become top 10 quarterbacks, they just need them to be competent in order for the offense to have consistent success.
The Steelers are going to live off play action this season, and prey on teams on second down and short. Which means Smith will be trying to make George Pickens his A.J. Brown. And if Pickens has proven anything, it’s that he can secure those deep shots when his number is called. So while we have grown painfully used to short throws and basic schematics, the 2024 Steelers are going to play bombs away football in the passing game. If executed properly, it will lead to Pittsburgh having one of the best deep ball attacks in the NFL, and won’t that be refreshing?
